REAL_RATES_DEBT_GDP

Syntax

REAL_RATES_DEBT_GDP()

This command takes no arguments. It constructs RealRatesandDebtGDP with its default 2023 snapshot.

Example

REAL_RATES_DEBT_GDP()

Measure and sources

realProxyPercent = 100 * ((1 + nominalYieldPercent/100) / (1 + inflationPercent/100) - 1)

The main comparison adjusts the mean of twelve monthly ten-year sovereign yields by the same year's annual headline CPI inflation. Yields are OECD/FRED series; baseline inflation is World Bank/FRED; debt is the IMF general-government gross debt/GDP snapshot used by MertonDebtandGDP. A separate euro-area check uses national ECB headline HICP annual-change rates averaged across twelve months.

This is a trailing-inflation yield proxy, not a real policy rate, an inflation-linked bond yield, an expected ten-year real yield, or a realized holding-period return. Headline CPI and core inflation are different measures.

Slideshow and interpretation

The main sample covers the United States, Italy, France, Greece, Spain, Germany, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark and Australia, subject to selected-year data coverage.

The United States remains in both main comparisons. Only Japan is removed in the second sample, and both linear and quadratic fits are re-estimated. The deck reports R-squared, adjusted R-squared, country observations, coverage and missing-input diagnostics. It also compares nominal yields with debt/GDP and shows the ECB HICP check separately.

Missing selected-year inputs are not replaced with stale values. Historical values can include estimates and revisions. Small-sample descriptive regressions do not establish causation or a universal debt threshold. Availability depends on the installed model and its data providers.

Output

Returns the RealRatesandDebtGDP model, rendered as a D3 slideshow. No command-specific EXTRACT keys are provided by this wrapper.