The model uses four quarterly lags of core PCE inflation, unemployment, the effective federal funds rate, and labor-productivity growth. Every target equation includes an intercept and every lag of every variable. The table is intentionally preserved in full for reproducibility.
| Target | Term | Lag | Coefficient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Term | Lag | Coefficient |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Intercept | 2.007572 | |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Core_PCE_Inflation | 1 | -0.031032 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Core_PCE_Inflation | 2 | -0.051296 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Core_PCE_Inflation | 3 | 0.127479 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Core_PCE_Inflation | 4 | -0.085141 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Unemployment | 1 | 0.028992 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Unemployment | 2 | -0.036103 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Unemployment | 3 | 0.471242 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Unemployment | 4 | -0.503351 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Federal_Funds_Rate | 1 | 0.473938 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Federal_Funds_Rate | 2 | -0.392394 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Federal_Funds_Rate | 3 | 0.065760 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Federal_Funds_Rate | 4 | -0.110766 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 1 | -0.035008 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 2 | -0.005218 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 3 | 0.001322 |
| Core_PCE_Inflation | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 4 | -0.006741 |
| Target | Term | Lag | Coefficient |
| Unemployment | Intercept | 0.422488 | |
| Unemployment | Core_PCE_Inflation | 1 | -0.085242 |
| Unemployment | Core_PCE_Inflation | 2 | -0.039287 |
| Unemployment | Core_PCE_Inflation | 3 | 0.034413 |
| Unemployment | Core_PCE_Inflation | 4 | 0.068265 |
| Unemployment | Unemployment | 1 | 1.061450 |
| Unemployment | Unemployment | 2 | 0.307003 |
| Unemployment | Unemployment | 3 | -0.076432 |
| Unemployment | Unemployment | 4 | -0.340390 |
| Unemployment | Federal_Funds_Rate | 1 | -0.092254 |
| Unemployment | Federal_Funds_Rate | 2 | -0.017605 |
| Unemployment | Federal_Funds_Rate | 3 | 0.102024 |
| Unemployment | Federal_Funds_Rate | 4 | 0.020726 |
| Unemployment | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 1 | 0.010681 |
| Unemployment | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 2 | -0.062093 |
| Unemployment | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 3 | -0.025481 |
| Unemployment | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 4 | 0.001608 |
| Target | Term | Lag | Coefficient |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Intercept | 0.153926 | |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Core_PCE_Inflation | 1 | -0.015041 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Core_PCE_Inflation | 2 | -0.005112 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Core_PCE_Inflation | 3 | 0.000357 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Core_PCE_Inflation | 4 | -0.018921 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Unemployment | 1 | -0.147864 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Unemployment | 2 | 0.147703 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Unemployment | 3 | -0.017650 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Unemployment | 4 | 0.004307 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Federal_Funds_Rate | 1 | 1.417952 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Federal_Funds_Rate | 2 | -0.312971 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Federal_Funds_Rate | 3 | -0.069149 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Federal_Funds_Rate | 4 | -0.083698 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 1 | -0.006382 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 2 | 0.063925 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 3 | -0.036244 |
| Federal_Funds_Rate | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 4 | 0.021748 |
| Target | Term | Lag | Coefficient |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Intercept | 2.969516 | |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Core_PCE_Inflation | 1 | -0.049059 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Core_PCE_Inflation | 2 | -0.246959 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Core_PCE_Inflation | 3 | 0.238596 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Core_PCE_Inflation | 4 | -0.065713 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Unemployment | 1 | 0.872088 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Unemployment | 2 | 0.560142 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Unemployment | 3 | -2.231272 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Unemployment | 4 | 0.587757 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Federal_Funds_Rate | 1 | -0.147081 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Federal_Funds_Rate | 2 | -0.467849 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Federal_Funds_Rate | 3 | 1.253006 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Federal_Funds_Rate | 4 | -0.545699 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 1 | 0.342412 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 2 | -0.285425 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 3 | 0.086576 |
| Labor_Productivity_Growth | Labor_Productivity_Growth | 4 | 0.023878 |
These are in-sample fitted values. A close fit is not equivalent to structural identification or out-of-sample forecasting accuracy.