Monthly consumer price inflation
Difference in monthly CPI growth (log percentage points) · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags
When U.S. crude oil prices rise
When the monthly change in the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price is $1 per barrel higher, how do inflation, industrial production growth, unemployment, and real consumer spending growth respond? Supply and demand can both move the oil price.
Each chart uses the same shock and lagged variables. The vertical line marks period zero. Shading shows pointwise 95% HAC confidence intervals. Negative horizons show pre-shock associations.
Monthly industrial production growth
Difference in monthly output growth (log percentage points) · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags
U.S. unemployment rate
Percentage-point difference in the unemployment rate · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags
Real consumer spending growth
Difference in monthly spending growth (log percentage points) · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags