Shock studies
Choose a shock to see how each outcome responds over time.
When U.S. payroll growth picks up
When monthly payroll growth is about one percentage point faster, how do unemployment, capacity utilization, and real consumer spending growth differ over the following two years? The estimates account for the previous two months of all four measures.
3 responses · View study →When U.S. crude oil prices rise
When the monthly change in the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price is $1 per barrel higher, how do inflation, industrial production growth, unemployment, and real consumer spending growth respond? Supply and demand can both move the oil price.
4 responses · View study →When the 10-year Treasury yield rises
How do U.S. mortgage rates, housing starts, the euro and the yen respond when the 10-year Treasury yield is 100 basis points higher? The local projections use monthly data from 1999 through 2025 and control for two lags of all five variables. Positive currency responses indicate appreciation against the U.S. dollar.
4 responses · View study →