U.S. unemployment rate
Percentage-point difference in the unemployment rate · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags
When U.S. payroll growth picks up
When monthly payroll growth is about one percentage point faster, how do unemployment, capacity utilization, and real consumer spending growth differ over the following two years? The estimates account for the previous two months of all four measures.
Each chart uses the same shock and lagged variables. The vertical line marks period zero. Shading shows pointwise 95% HAC confidence intervals. Negative horizons show pre-shock associations.
U.S. capacity utilization
Percentage-point difference in capacity utilization · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags
Real consumer spending growth
Difference in monthly spending growth (log percentage points) · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags