30-year fixed mortgage rate
Mortgage-rate difference in percentage points (0.25 = 25 basis points) · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags
When the 10-year Treasury yield rises
How do U.S. mortgage rates, housing starts, the euro and the yen respond when the 10-year Treasury yield is 100 basis points higher? The local projections use monthly data from 1999 through 2025 and control for two lags of all five variables. Positive currency responses indicate appreciation against the U.S. dollar.
Each chart uses the same shock and lagged variables. The vertical line marks period zero. Shading shows pointwise 95% HAC confidence intervals. Negative horizons show pre-shock associations.
New U.S. housing starts
Difference in the level of starts (1 log percentage point ≈ 1%) · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags
Euro versus U.S. dollar
Log percentage points · positive = appreciation · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags
Japanese yen versus U.S. dollar
Log percentage points · positive = appreciation · −6 to +24 periods · 2 lags