2026-09-17
A RainbowStats examination of unemployment, bank-loan delinquencies, COVID adjustment, reverse causality, and transfer functions.
Development notes, market research, visualizations, and command examples.
A RainbowStats examination of unemployment, bank-loan delinquencies, COVID adjustment, reverse causality, and transfer functions.
A longer sample and controlled regression show that supply normalization—not faster growth—drove pandemic-era disinflation.
On the speed of labor reallocation -- descriptive evidence, clearly labeled
A short RainbowStats VAR test of foreign-born labor-force participation, technology production and real GDP per person.
A RainbowStats test of how freer access to productive work raises productivity, income and wealth—and how compounded wealth creates new opportunity.
A public-data replication of the New York Fed's R-star–labor-share nexus, expanded with capacity utilization and a VAR-derived DSGE representation.
A viral chart about men and women in the workforce leads to a closer RainbowStats examination of occupational employment and median weekly earnings.
A FRED-based decomposition of aggregate equity returns, retained corporate earnings, and Treasury bond returns—with a warning from the 1936–1938 undistributed-profits tax.
RainbowStats uses principal components instead of state dummy variables to explain county housing-price growth.
An exploratory analysis of how county house-price growth clustered across eight U.S. states in 2024.
A follow-up to the RainbowStats county mental-distress study showing how a Washington state fixed effect exposes omitted-variable bias in the pooled model.
A data-led examination of U.S.–Canada political rhetoric, markets, European trade, aerospace supply chains and energy interdependence.
A reflection on Kenneth Keniston, artificial intelligence, productivity, compensation, isolation and mental distress in Washington and Iowa counties.
Two historical echoes—from the pre-1914 world and the aftermath of 1929—help explain why the unresolved Great Financial Crisis still matters politically.
A RainbowStats reproduction of Instrument Hacking by Michael P. Keane, Timothy Neal, and Patrick Vu.
What the August 2026 jobs report looks like after stripping away the headline
How dummy variables can transform an attractive OLS fit into something spectacular—and why that spectacle may be a warning about overfitting rather than evidence of causation.
The feared UK collapse is hard to see against nearby European economies. The larger post-2010 story is that Britain, Germany, and a Northwest European control all grew more slowly than the United States.
The August Employment Situation arrives Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. We are publishing our number in advance—and showing every assumption behind it.
A RainbowStats comparison of OLS and tax-period LP median regression for the Gini index and labor share versus corporate profits relative to GNP.
AI investment, government borrowing, housing, and the shadow price of constrained capital
M2, bank reserves, Fed assets, and a net liquidity proxy tell different stories. Five charts and reproducible RainbowStats analysis explain why.
ECB data show a narrowing interest-rate premium on smaller euro-area corporate loans. Reproduce the charts with a six-line RainbowStats script.
Three state-level principal component analyses reveal distinct unemployment, participation, and GDP patterns using RainbowStats wildcards.
RainbowStats tests whether the Federal Reserve's dual mandate supports price stability using a transparent VAR and COVID-break regressions.
How scale, denominators, inequality, and regression choices change the story told by household wealth data.
A one-line RainbowStats script estimates eleven U.S. bilateral trade equations as a seemingly unrelated regression system.
A RainbowStats analysis of labor-market tightness, inflation persistence, matched comparisons and transfer-function lags.
Use RainbowStats to see the official component weights behind the CPI and PPI in one line of script.
A public-data threshold analysis of Federal Reserve reserve demand, inspired by Ricardo Lagos and Gastón Navarro.
From AI capital spending to commercial paper to bank lending—a reproducible public-data analysis.
Black-Scholes, characteristic functions, FFT option pricing and Variance Gamma skew.
How a 38.2-basis-point increase in bill rates can erase the annual savings from a full 100-basis-point decline in long-term rates—and why Treasury’s maturity choices put the Federal Reserve in a bind
A data-driven view of the future of energy: electrification, generation, storage, oil, emissions, grid constraints, and Seattle's hydropower advantage.
LW and HLW disagree materially about the neutral real interest rate, real-time revisions are large, and a market-based estimate contradicts both models.
Short Movie on the Panic of 1907; the imputus for the creation of the Federal Reserve
We test whether taxing excess corporate retained earnings could meaningfully reduce federal deficits—and find that even aggressive assumptions barely affect debt-to-GDP.
A data-driven look at the 2026 Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange, its repayment economics, and the refining margins associated with released crude.
A Demonstration of Zellner's Seemingly Unrelated Regressions -- SUR
Using Three-Stage Least Squares to Analyze Money and Velocity
Moment Diagram for Asset Returns - Skewness and Kurtosis
Using Principal Compoenents to estimate Recession Probability
S&P 500 Rise and Credit Spreads using the Merton Model
Modeling Oil Shock of the Iranian Hormuz Closure using RainbowStats